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Prof Jan Kruger


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Prof Jan Kruger

Aspiring independent non executive director

Currently resides in: Gauteng, South Africa

Born in Krugersdorp South Africa

Prof. Jan Kruger
BSc(US), HonsBSc(Unisa), MSc(Wits), PhD(Wits), HOD(US)
Prof. Kruger is professor in Corporate Finance. Prof. Kruger has been a professional investor and equity analyst for many years. He is also a non-executive director at an exploration company. He has extensive experience as consultant and as lecturer in Mathematics, Operations Research, Finance, Computer Science, Management and Statistics in industry and at Universities. He presented many conference papers and published research publications on Machine Learning, Data mining and Reliability Theory. He is co-editor of two first year mathematics text books. Jan did his PhD “Finding the causal structure from the correlation matrix” in Computer Science at Wits.
Prof. Kruger supervises numerous master and doctoral research students. He is an external examiner for Mathematics of Finance, International Management and other subjects at some of the best universities in the country.
Types of consulting: Facilitation of workshops, corporate governance at companies, risk management, company valuations, optimization and programming for companies in the private sector.
More information can be seen at :

Contact details

O: 0116520369

M: 0845480747

Web presence

Business Address

1st Ave, Midrand, South Africa, 1686

Professional details

Current Position(s)

Member of the audit committee | SA Pharmaceutical Society
Pretoria, South Africa | November 2013 - present

Medical, Healthcare and Pharmaceuticals

Member of the audit committee

Non executive director | Thabex
Johannesburg, South Africa | 2008 - present

Mining, Energy and Natural Resources

I am on the Remuneration committee and on the Audit Committee of Thabex. Thabex is a mining exploration company. Thabex has a number of projects running at the moment.

Professor | UNISA School for Business leaders
Midrand, South Africa | 2007 - present

Consulting and Project Management

I lecture Finance, Research Methods and Statistics at Masters level. I supervise a number of Masters research students. I am promoter to a number of doctoral candidates.

Consultant | Private Consultant
1971 - present

Consulting and Project Management

I do consulting work - Mostly mathematical modeling, IT, statistics, Operations research

Investor | Private Practice
1969 - present

Accounting, Banking and Finance

I am a professional investor

Previous Position(s)

part time lecturer | University of the Witwatersrand
2001 - 2002

Academia, Education and Training

Started up the Open Learning programme in Science.
Lectured Statistics for the Wits Business School

Lecturer | Technikon Witwatersrand
1977 - 1989

Consulting and Project Management

Lecturer in Mathematics and Statistics

Educational history


Paul Roos Gymnasium, Stellenbosch, South Africa (1970)


University of the Witwatersrand

1998 - 2004

PhD - Computer Science

University of the Witwatersrand

1996 - 1997

MSc- - Computer Science

University of South Africa/Universiteit van Suid-Afrika

1984 - 1987

Hons BSc - Operations Research

University of Stellenbosch

Stellenbosch, South Africa | 1975 - 1975

Higher teachers diploma - mathematics and career guidance

Secondary school teaching diploma

Stellenbosch University/Universiteit Stellenbosch

1971 - 1974

BSc - Mathematics, Psychology, MStatistics


Academic Achievements

Publication | 2010

Approximation of NPV for IT investments
UNISA March 2, 2010

Great uncertainties surround the IT project landscape where unpredictability of costs as well as quantification of benefits remain prominent. Although NPV is often used as the de facto standard for IT investment appraisal, calculating the confidence levels of the inputs thereto or the output thereof is not attempted as often as desired. The purpose of this study was to determine how to perform...

Two authors:

Prof JW Kruger and AJ Rathugamage

Publication | 2013

Share repurchases announcement effect on earnings: Evidence from South Africa
Accounting and Taxation April 2, 2013
This study investigates the effect share repurchases announcements have on earnings of companies listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange over a period of 8 years from 2001 to 2008. The study investigates 27 companies listed in the middle capitalization and large capitalization stocks of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. The study measured earnings by 1) earnings per share percentage change, 2)...

2 authors

Prof. Jan Kruger
LW Makasi

Publication | 2011

The best posterior probability model could be different from the actual causal model
Proceedings of the 2011 ORSSA Annual Conference
September 18, 2011
An example is shown that the best posterior probability model, as found by the Cooper and Herskovits equation, is not always the causal model. This involves moving from a causal model, to a frequency distribution, to a correlation matrix and back to a model. The elimination heuristic, utilising independence relations, is introduced as a ?first step towards getting the actual causal model. At...

Publication | 2011

Bankruptcy prediction in South Africa
Proceedings of the 2011 ORSSA Annual Conference
September 18, 2011
Bankruptcy prediction modeling and studies are known to have existed since the 1960s. In this report a brief overview is given of the theory with reference to Altman's use of Multivariate Discrimination in the formulation of his Z-score model. This study looks at the impact of time in the classification or prediction accuracy. Two sets of 71 failed and non-failed companies listed in the...

2 authors

Prof. Jan Kruger
Maeteletsa Abel

Publication | 2012

January 27, 2012
The heightened risks and opportunities posed by climate change call for increased attention by business executives to employ creative and rigorous methodology in generating strategic response options. Because climate change is influenced by an assortment of multiple and interdependent variables, the search for solutions to this complex challenge ought to be a multi-dimensional trade-off seamlessly...

2 authors

Prof. Jan Kruger
Muriel Chinoda

Publication | 2011

Share price reaction to earnings announcement on the JSE-ALtX: A test for market efficiency
Southern African Business Review 15(3)
December 10, 2011
Management has a duty to inform both shareholders and investors about the state of health of a firm. Earnings announcements provide a yardstick that can be utilised by the market to assess the wealth and profitability of a firm. The purpose of the study was to investigate whether there are any significant abnormal returns around the public announcement of earnings and to establish whether the...

3 authors

Prof. Jan Kruger
Meiya Nthoesane
Vatiswa Mlonzi

Publication | 2011

Efficient Value-at-Risk Estimation
International Conference on Future Computer and Communication, 3rd (ICFCC 2011)
In economics and finance, the Value-at-Risk (VaR) is a measurement of the maximum loss not exceeded with a given probability over a specified time. The VaR is an important measurement, as it gives a financial institution with confidence the maximum loss it can incur over time. In this paper, we briefly appraise general VaR measures. Subsequently, we introduce the idea of using the market...

2 authors

Prof. Jan Kruger
Angelo Joseph

Publication | 2009

A Resource Allocation Model to Support Effcient Air Quality Management in South Africa
ORiON ISSN 0529-191-X c 2009
Research into management interventions that create the required enabling environment for growth and development in South Africa are both timely and appropriate. In the research reported in this paper, the authors investigated the level of efficiency of the Air Quality Units within the three spheres of government viz. National, Provincial, and Local Departments of Environmental Management in South...more

2 authors

Prof. Jan Kruger
Urishanie Govender

Publication | 2011

Bayesian belief network outperforms linear regression to select shares
Fifth Brazilian Conference on Statistical Modeling in Insurance and Finance, Maresias, April 10-15, 2011
Shares were classified into four states according to their share price performance. A modified Bayesian model was used to find the underlying causal structure. The causal structure was then tested on a holdout sample. Return on shares was estimated based on various accounting attributes over the preceding five years, using a four state version of Pearl’s algorithm. None of the attributes were...

Publication | 2010

1st International conference on leadership and management for sustainable development 6-8 October 2010 Midrand South Africa
The purpose of this study was to investigate whether there are any significant abnormal returns around the public announcement of earnings and to establish whether the efficient capital market hypothesis applies to the small ALT-X market. The population of interest was all the companies that were listed on the JSE-ALTX, announced annual earnings, from1 January 2009 to 31 December 2009. The method...

3 authors

Prof. Jan Kruger
Meiya Ntoesane
Vatiswa Mlonzi

Publication | 2010

Risk, Book to Market and Size Effects in the South African Stock Market
1st International conference on leadership and management for sustainable development 6-8 October 2010 Midrand South Africa
Anecdotal evidence suggests that investment in high risk shares will yield superior returns. In this study companies listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange were reviewed over a ten year period. The return of each company, over the first five year period, was used to calculate a standard deviation of return and a beta value for each company. These values represent the risk associated with the...

2 authors

Prof. Jan Kruger
Shaun Lantermans

Publication | 2010

Forecasting ticket sales, the case of commuter rail in South Africa
1st International conference on leadership and management for sustainable development, 6-8 Oct 2010
The application of quantitative statistical modelling in the commuter rail environment is explored in this research paper. The research explored the application of various time series models as well as the ARIMA model and regression analysis. The application of two forecast combinations was also explored to improve the accuracy of the forecasts. The ARIMA model in combination with the seasonal...

2 authors

Prof. Jan Kruger
Anna-Marie Lubbe

Publication | 2010

Bayesian Learning in share selection
1st International conference on leadership and management for sustainable development, 6-8 Oct 2010
The return and various attributes from the McGreggor database were used to estimate the return that will be achieved by different companies in the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). None of the attributes were significantly correlated to the return.
The Pearl algorithm in Bayesian belief networks induces a belief network from data. With a solid grounding in probability theory, the Pearl algorithm...

Publication | 2011


Academic books suggest that there is a correlation between risk and return. In this study companies listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange were reviewed over a ten year period. Risk measures (standard deviation and beta) were calculated over the first five years for each company. The correlation coefficient between the risk and return for the following five years was calculated. (r = -0.1296,...

Publication | 2011

Oil and Gold Price Volatility
July 13, 2011
Volatility is a measure of the average yearly changes in the market prices. The high volatility of the oil price has been pivotal in the development of international petroleum exchanges. The low volatility of the gold price is the reason why market participants usually view gold as a wealth preserver especially during inflationary time periods. In this paper, we present the stylized facts of the...

3 authors

Prof. Jan Kruger
Angelo Joseph
Abraham Aphane




Member, 1994 - present

Institute of IT professionals South Africa

South African Institute for Computer Science and Information technology

Member, 1995 - present

professional society for Computer science and Information Technology in South Africa

South African Statistical association

Member, 1987 - present

Professional society for Statistics

Operations Research Society

Member, 1986 - present

Professional society for operations researchers in South Africa

Investment Analyst Society

Member, 2004 - present

Society for equity analysts

Institute of Directors of South Africa

Member, 2009 - present

Professional body for directors


Escom Science Expo

National convener - Computer Science and mathematics, 2000 - present

Escom Science Expo for school learners awards prices to the top science achievers in South Africa.

I am a committee member and judge for the Johannesburg region as well as the national convener in computer science and applications.

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