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We chat to Emerging Market's Economist Peter Montalto.

Posted in Professionals • Posted 27 November 2013  65 COMMENTS


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Peter Montalto is an Emerging Market’s Economist at Nomura International.

 

What did you think you were going to ‘be’ when you grew up, and what changed that?

When I was very young I wanted to be either a fire-fighter or an ice-cream man. It turns out my job now has elements of both – dealing with rapidly changing situations that can suddenly develop like a fireman and being public facing and interacting with a lot of different sorts of clients like an ice-cream man.  I actually knew for a long time I wanted to do research, originally at school scientific research, but then over time as I became more aware of economic issues as a point of focus.

Explain what a typical day as an emerging market analyst is like?

Thinking, lots of thinking about the world, issues of economics, politics, investment flows by corporates and portfolio investors, interactions between and within different countries. That all obviously involves a lot of quantitative modelling work, but also talking to lots of different people from clients, policy makers, think tanks, academics, media and more. As stories develop and markets move through each day I have to be on the case to respond to them, write research reports and advise clients. Within all that there is time to write some longer run research on structural issues in emerging markets and long run themes as well as advise on ongoing banking transactions.

What does it take to ‘stand out’ amongst your analyst peers?

The guts to make bold calls and stand out from consensus when necessary - which sometimes can draw the ire of policy makers and politicians, but most of all simply be there to handhold investors through making investments. To be the one they trust and want to call to provide insights into a particular economy as events are unfolding.

In layman’s terms, what are the main differences between the South African market, and the European?

Politics is clearly far more ‘raw’ in South Africa and its influence on business and the economy so much more apparent. We obviously see this most acutely in the contrast of labour market structures and events, but in policy too. But the Eurozone crisis has taught us that political risk can rear its head in developed markets as well. The data quality in SA is actually quite good compared with developed markets though one of the big differences is clearly the liquidity of markets, and so volatility is so much higher.

What is typically the first job that an emerging markets analyst holds? In other words, what is considered an entry-level position in the investment industry?

Analysts start off working with data and building models, combing news and headlines and helping put together pieces of research and publications. That helps them over time gain expertise and skills to be able to look at countries on their own, to understand markets and make investment calls. Then over time they develop client relationships.

What does South Africa’s economic future look like, from your position?

Over the next four or five years I think the outlook remains for pretty sluggish growth in part given the external global dynamic, but especially because of the very slow pace that SA is dealing with its economic problems. Over the longer run I think in an economy with such levels of inequality and unemployment such a situation is ultimately unsustainable and change will have to come – hopefully peacefully through the ballot box either shocking the ANC into a new economic model or from a new party. I still believe that SA’s institutional structure is strong enough for such a process to occur and dismiss the doomsayers who see a ‘Zim’ scenario. That resolution however may well be a long way off.

If you had a million rand to invest, what would you do with it?

Unfortunately that does not seem anywhere near enough to buy a villa in Camps Bay. It depends on your time horizon. I would probably put it into SA wine or art if we are talking over 5 years or so.

What do you think is the most important innovation of your industry?

The investment research industry doesn’t really innovate in the usual sense. It has always been the same job and always will be. But we keep pace with the latest thinking of academics and policy makers as economic theory develops one economies and markets.

What do you love most about your career?

Travel, meeting policymakers and politicians and discussing ways of making growth stronger and encouraging investment opportunities. Some of the most significant moments have come when I’ve helped brand new Greenfield investment in a country create jobs and new production. Unfortunately in South Africa that is actually moderately rare, but it has happened in a number of other countries in emerging Europe that I also cover.

What keeps you motivated?

That’s a difficult question. In a sense when faced with an ever morphing story, ever change financial markets and event after event to look at it can seem like a never ending torrent. It is only really the love of analysis and research, a sense of exploration and then of the countries one is looking at that can keep you motivated.

What are you currently reading and/or what are your most frequented websites?

On South Africa I’m currently reading Adam Habib’s ‘South Africa’s Suspended Revolution’, Adam and I are from very different places politically but it’s an insightful read. I will move onto Stephen Grootes’ ‘SA Politics Unspun’ next. I find it very challenging to dig beneath a lot of the froth in the South African media and generally my favourite and most rewarding read each day is the Daily Maverick and in particular their take on politics of which Stephen’s column is front and centre.

How important has Social Media and Online Brand Management been in managing your career?

At the end of the day the whole point is that the largest and most important investors know who you are and what you are thinking which can only be done directly. However newer forms of interaction are useful for gaining a wider reputation and gaining and staying into touch with new and interesting connections.



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Start date: 29-03-2018
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When children discover their “spark”, they tap into their own unique talents and interests that awaken purpose, unlock possibilities, dr…

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